Spatiotemporal Evolution of Seasonal Crop-Specific Climatic Indices under Climate Change in Greece Based on EURO-CORDEX RCM Simulations

This study presents an updated assessment of the projected climate change over Greece in near future (2021–2050) and at end 21st century (2071–2100) (EOC), relative to reference period 1971–2000, focusing on seasonal crop-specific climatic indices. The indices include days (d) with: a maximum daily near-surface temperature (TASMAX) > 30 °C Spring, TASMAX 35 Summer (hot days), minimum (TASMIN) < 0 (frost days) TASMIN 20 (tropical nights) Spring–Summer precipitation (PR) 1 mm (wet Spring covering critical periods which wheat, tomatoes, cotton, potato, grapes, rice olive are more sensitive water and/or stress. analysis is based ensemble 11 EURO-CORDEX regional model simulations under influence strong, moderate, no mitigation Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5, respectively). related expected increase by up 40 Summer, tropical nights rise 50 days, frost decrease wet decline 9 EOC with RCP8.5. increased heat stress deficit have negative crop impacts, contrast positive effects anticipated days. constitutes further step towards identifying commodities regions which, change, or will be significantly impacted.